Super Bowl XLVIII is being played today and I still can’t get a feel for how I think the game will play out. The Seattle Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL and the Denver Broncos have the best offense in the NFL. Both teams have had two weeks to prepare for each other leading up the game and that is my main cause for uncertainty leading into the game. I hate the two week delay between the Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl. Maybe it is because Chicago went through another polar vortex and a ton more of snow fell in the two weeks but too much time has passed so I’m not hyped up for the game at all. Most people will say it is because the Bears aren’t in the game but I love watching Peyton Manning and I am just not that excited to watch the game.
Part of the reason for my inability to see how this game will play out is due to the fact that the NFL decided to hold the Super Bowl in New York…in February…in an outdoor stadium. Peyton Manning hasn’t had the best of luck playing in horrific weather conditions and that was a very good possibility for this game. However, it looks like the NFL has lucked out and the weather should be ok for the game tonight before turning bad tomorrow. Players, media and fans may have trouble getting out of NY tomorrow but it shouldn’t affect how the game is played.
Since the weather dilemma has been figured out, the main hold up now is this two week delay before playing the game. Normally, if Peyton Manning has two weeks to prepare for a defense, the edge would go to Peyton. He is the smartest quarterback in the league. He calls all the plays from the line of scrimmage and two weeks is too long to give him to dissect a defense and learn their tendencies. On the other hand, the Seattle defense has the same two weeks to prepare for Manning and a two week delay could mess up his rhythm. He was in a zone two weeks ago as he dissected the New England Patriots. Of course, a lot of those drives ended in FGs because they stalled in the red zone against the Patriots defense. Therefore, it is worrisome that the same thing will happen against the best defense and the best DBs in the NFL. Once inside the red zone, the Broncos are going to need Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball to step up and make big plays in crunch time running the ball. I’m not sure they can do that. If the Broncos can’t run the ball, will Peyton be able to get the beat Richard Sherman in the end zone or will he meet the same fate as the 49ers in the NFC Championship game?
With all the talk about Peyton Manning and Richard Sherman, I think the true key to this game comes down to the Seahawks offense against the Broncos defense. It was a missed assignment by the Broncos defense that allowed a huge play to knock them out of the playoffs last season. Their defense is banged up and without Von Miller for the Super Bowl. 10 times this season, the Broncos defense has given up 21 or more points. In comparison, the Seattle defense has only given 21 or more points three times all year and one was 22 and one was 24. I think the Broncos defense is going to have to give up less than 24 points in order for Denver to win the game. I’m not sure they can contain Russell Wilson while trying to stop Marshawn Lynch. I can see Marshawn Lynch being a load and opening up the passing game with play action. The Seahawks don’t have the best wide receivers but Denver has shown that they will fail in coverage from time to time. If Russell can exploit those opportunities or even make the Broncos pay with his legs, it could be a long night for Denver fans. Wilson is capable of rushing for over 100 yards if he extends broken plays. Without Von Miller, it is going to be hard for the Broncos to find someone fast enough to put in the middle of the field to shadow Wilson and make sure he doesn’t scramble for 10-15 yards at a time when the receivers are covered.
The remaining key piece of the puzzle is the officiating. The referees have been HORRIBLE all season. The amount of missed calls and just horrible decisions even after watching the review has been scary. What are the odds that the officials call a clean game and don’t make an error that influences the outcome? 10-1? 50-1? 100-1? That being said, how will the refs call the game? Seattle loves to make contact with the receivers. They maul the WRs and TEs all the way down the field. The refs could legitimately call illegal contact beyond 5 yards past the line scrimmage on every single play if they want. Seattle has gotten away with it all year. Will they get away with it in the most watched game of all time against Peyton Manning? Does anyone doubt that Roger Goodell would tell the referees that Peyton Manning winning the Super Bowl would be best for business and therefore to call the illegal contact closely? Even if it wasn’t for Peyton to win, does anyone think that Roger Goodell doesn’t have an axe to grind with the Seattle defense due to all the failed drug tests that their lawyers find loopholes to block punishment? How will Richard Sherman react if he gets called for a key pass interference penalty on a key play in the 4th quarter? Will he be so animated that it gets an unsportsmanlike conduct tacked on for another 15 yards that decides the outcome? I can definitely see it happening.
In conclusion, I think this game is going to come down to the final minutes. I think the Denver defense is going to give up too many big plays and Peyton is going to have to work his magic on the final drive. I feel the officials will play an important role in the outcome including maybe one ref taking matters into his own hands ie calling crucial penalty or two to “put Richard Sherman in his place” after his outburst following the NFC Championship game and the Broncos win 31-27.
Further prediction: Most people think that Peyton will retire if he wins and go out on top a la John Elway. I think he comes back so he can try to tie Tom Brady with 3 Super Bowls…get ahead of his brother in Super Bowls and to break Brett Favre’s TD passes record (17 behind).
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